Oct 23, 2012

A friend recently asked me “what will happen to your business if Mitt Romney is elected as president?”

My reply: “nothing.”

Mitt has followed in the footsteps of every presidential contender since Bill Clinton when it comes to China. Promises and threats are made of removing China’s most favored nation status (in the case of Clinton), or naming China as currency manipulator “on day one of my presidency,” as Romney has said.

Then, when elected, reality sets in. If we smack China upside the face, who is our largest banker and holds the note on trillions of our debt, and who we need to lean on North Vietnam from time to time and in other international matters, we’re in for a bloody mess. Saying what it takes to get elected and threatening to torch the bridge is far different from burning it.

Personally, I think our governent should focus hard on the problems we have of Chinese espionage and hackers trying to steal business and government secrets. I would find out where these attacks were coming from and then put pressure on the Chinese government to end it.

If Romney gets elected my guess is that he has to name the Chinese a currency manipulator in order to maintain credibility and avoid getting hit with “Read my lips…” attacks like George Bush Sr., who promised not to increase taxes but broke it after he arrived in office. But Romney will try to find a way to do it where severe, across the board tariffs aren’t enacted. Remember, Apple, the world’s most valuable company gets a lot of its products from China. The general public will scream if they suddenly find that the price of the products they want have suddenly surged overnight i.e. inflation. Romney will probably try to thread the needle and keep the Chinese from getting hit too hard on one side, while saving face at home. What would be nice would be if Romney were to work hard at balancing the budget so we didn’t have to borrow money any more.

If Obama is elected, expect more of the same = Borrowing money from China with impunity.